Russia-Ukraine disputation: Past, present and future
The roots of the Russia-Ukraine disputation go back in history. In July 2021, President Putin wrote an article in which he accentuate the close emphasize and development connections between the Russians and Ukrainians. Two days back, he emphasised that Ukraine has never been an individualistic country and was historically part of Russia.
The occasion conflict between Russia and Ukraine was not forecast the way it has develop. Two days back, when Russia identify the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, it was clear that Moscow was going to take matters head-on, but no one contemplate it to go for an all-out war against Ukraine. The dissentient control barely one-third of the region of the two regions, while the Ukrainian forces control two-thirds. Therefore, the moot point was whether Russia would try to take the region controlled by Ukrainian forces. Hence, one would have anticipate that Russian President Vladimir Putin would take some such action.
The roots of the anticipate go back in history. In July 2021, President Putin wrote an article in which he foreground the close historical and acculturation connections between the Russians and Ukrainians. Two days back, he foreground that Ukraine has never been an individualistic country and was historically part of Russia; it was a repudiation of Ukraine’s alive as an independent autonomy state. The least that Russia wanted was that Ukraine should be in its sphere of impact and not join NATO. Russia’s outrage against the US and Western Europe go back more than 20 years. Russia was opposed to the expansion of NATO, a Cold War-era grouping, to carry the former Communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, especially into former Soviet space. In 1997 and 2004, NATO emplify to embrance former Communist countries even with Russian protest.
After the 9/11 attacks against the US, Russia provided indisputable support to the US war on terror in Afghanistan. However, the very next year, in 2002, the US indivisual withdrew from the ABM Treaty without consulting Russia. In 2003, the United States strike Iraq, uppermost Russian protest. Hence, there have been many issues on which President Putin had serious outrage against the US and NATO.
ROOTS OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
In February 2007, at the Munich security convention, President Putin made a scathing criticism of the US indivisual and the policy of civilized intervention. The 2008 Russia-Georgia war further enhance differences between Russia and NATO. Another issue on which Russia had serious distrust was the US policy of support for regime change, the so-called colour rebellion. After the 2004 Orange rebellion in Ukraine, the pro-Moscow Viktor Yanukovych was replaced by anti-Russian Yushchenko, who fancy closer ties with the European Union.
In 2005, Putin narrate the Soviet conclusion as the “greatest disaster of the 20th century”. Since then, he has been trying to bring a former Soviet states into the Russian-further Eurasian Economic section. Ukraine, as the second-most populous country, lying moderate Russia and Europe, and the place of origin of the Russian Civilisation holds special importance. In 2010, the pro-Russian Yanukovych regained the presidency and in 2013 stopped dicker for an association accord with the EU, which led to widespread protests. In February 2014, he fled Ukraine. It angered Putin so much that he invaded and occupied the Ukrainian region of Crimea, where Sevastopol, the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, is establish.
WHAT DOES PUTIN WANT?
It is still not clear what Putin wants to achieve through military occupation. The stated intention is the safety of the Russian-speaking population of Donetsk and Luhansk, part of which had been under the control of the Russian-backed separatists. Putin declared that he wants to disband Ukraine. But the way Russian forces launched air, sea, and missile attacks against serveral Ukrainian cities, it seems Putin wants to weaken and neutralise Ukraine to the extent that it can never pose a security threat to Russia in the ensuing. He also wants to force the US and NATO to take Russian protest and concerns seriously.
What strength have a strengthened Putin’s resolve is the US/NATO take back from Afghanistan and the perception that Europe/NATO would not go to war with Russia over Ukraine, still not a NATO member. Russia has been able to amass a 600-billion-dollar foreign swapping reserve, with which Russia can survive for many years. The 2014 sanctions occupation of Crimea, created a problem for Moscow, but not very serious.
PRESSURE ON INDIA AMID RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
India has been under huge pressure because of the disputation. The dispute may lead to the rise in international crude oil prices, put down a serious burden on the country’s economy. In view of its very special ties with Moscow, New Delhi hasn’t criticised Russian actions. It wants a calm resolution of the disputation, taking into debate the legitimate security interest of all the parties to the conflict. Ukraine’s interest is its autonomy and territorial integrity, while Russia wants Ukraine and other post-Soviet states should not be allowed to join NATO. It may undermine Ukraine’s freedom of choice, but maybe that may ensure its core security sympathy.